Gold update for today

Gold update for today
MCX April delivery gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 30150 levels
Market look strong  around 30300,
now days market so volatile because of Ukraine issue and yesterday base metal goes up and bullion down side.

Oil Trades Above $107; Follows Asia

Crude oil futures are trading above $107 a barrel in the Asia electronic session today buoyed by rally in the Asian equities and also on fears of Western military intervention in Syria.
Most Asian stocks advanced Monday after downbeat U.S. home sales on Friday led some to expect the Federal Reserve may delay paring its bond purchases. The Shanghai Composite Index edged 0.3% higher in choppy trade, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.7%, with both benchmarks also aided by some better-than-expected results from various Chinese firms.
Crude oil for October delivery advanced 51 cents to $106.93 a barrel, adding to Friday’s 1.3% rally on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose as high as $107.37 earlier in the day.
The advance came as the U.S. reportedly considered using military force in the Syrian civil war after the government there allegedly used chemical weapons against civilians. While Syria isn’t a major oil producer, unrest in the key petroleum-producing Middle East region can prompt broad concerns about crude supply, which in turn bid up oil futures.
The U.S. dollar swung between small gains and losses against major counterparts Monday. The ICE dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, slipped to 81.360, down marginally from 81.366 late Friday in North America.
This weekend, Federal Reserve officials finished their annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo., and experts attending the conference said the Fed is on track to reduce stimulus efforts in September, with a desire by bank officials to return to conventional monetary policy. The Fed currently buys $85 billion a month in assets to aid economic growth.
MCX September crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 6870 levels with resistance near Rs 6900-40 levels.  

MCX Gold Tips Update

Gold futures got a boost on the disappointing jobs data, which put to rest recent sentiments that the Federal Reserve may consider tightening policy in the coming months.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier the economy added 88,000 nonfarm payrolls in March, way below expectations for a gain of 200,000 and below the 268,000 jobs added in February.

The private sector added 95,000 jobs last month, after an increase of 254,000 in February, missing expectations for a 209,000 rise.

The report also showed that the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6 per cent in March, from 7.7 per cent the previous month, as more Americans left the labor force.

The news sent the dollar falling and gold rising on expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep monetary stimulus programs in place, including its USD85 billion monthly bond-buying program that weakens the greenback as a side effect.

The June COMEX gold futures had tumbled to 10 month low of $1539.4 earlier this week, however it jumped back to end the fortnight at $1575.9 an ounce.

It rallied to a one-month peak in March on worries about fiscal stability in Europe, as politicians scrambled to clinch a bail-out for Cyprus.

Fear that central banks' money-printing to buy assets will stoke inflation has been a key driver in boosting gold, which rallied to an 11-month high in October after the Fed announced its third round of aggressive economic stimulus.

The international gold prices are down nearly $80 from its last year's level as the US dollar has appreciated.

The June COMEX gold futures are trading at $ 1575.9 an ounce as on 5th April 2013 whereas last year the metal has been trading near $1650 an ounce levels.

The US dollar has gained nearly 2 per cent in April 2013 compared to the same period last year.

However the MCX gold futures are trading higher than it was during the same period last year.

The MCX June gold futures finished at Rs 29710 per 10 grams on 5th April 2013 whereas during the same period last year gold prices were hovering around Rs 27500-28000 levels.

One reason for this difference is depreciation in the Indian currency. The Rupee is down nearly 9 per cent at 54.88 per US dollar as compared to 50.5 in March 2012.

The Rupee is expected to depreciate further in the new fiscal year because a weak currency is desirable to fix India's current account.

The shortfall in India's current account, the broadest measure of trade, widened to $32.6 billion in the quarter ended 31 December, or 6.7 per cent of gross domestic product, as imports of oil and gold surged

Mcx Tips

Gold futures jumped in Asia electronic session today as the US dollar dipped as the euro-zone finance ministers and International Monetary Fund officials once again failed to reach a deal on aid for Greece.

The ICE dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, slipped to 80.835, compared with 80.937 in late North American trade Wednesday.

Gold for December delivery are trading $7.7 at $1,731.3 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it ended up $4.60, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,728.20 an ounce after trading between $1,718.40 and $1,732. Comex floor trading will remain closed Thursday for the holiday and open for an abbreviated session Friday.

Gold also got a boost yesterday after the International Monetary Fund’s monthly statistics reportedly showed central banks in emerging countries increased their holdings in October.

Euro-zone concerns however continued to bother the market as the region’s finance ministers failed to agree on conditions to unlock what would be Greece’s next aid disbursement. They will meet Monday to resume negotiations, Eurogroup chief Jean-Claude Juncker said.

The data released today showed that, Chinese manufacturing activity improved for the first time in more than a year in November, the preliminary reading of a survey by HSBC showed Thursday. In October, the final reading of the HSBC China manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5. The flash, or preliminary reading, is based on about 85% to 90% of the responses in HSBC's survey.

MCX December gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 31800 levels with resistance near Rs 31870 levels.

MCX Natural Gas Future Tips

MCX Natural gas futures are trading in a thin manner today as the global prices edged up amid a mixed undertone in the Asian equities and strength in the US dollar. The commodity has been in a downward spiral in last few days and had tumbled to its two week low of $3.828 per mmbtu last week before bargain buying supported the sentiments. The counter quotes at $3.890, up 3.5 cents per barrel or nearly 1% on the day.

Natural gas has been falling down after hitting 10-month highs above $4 per mmbtu earlier in the month but failed to hold onto the watershed mark. Prices constantly slipped thereafter but it seems a rather positive US GDP data and expectations of colder weather in near term are supporting the commodity now.

Gas prices were up even as above-average temperatures in much of the US have tempered consumption. During the week ended October 24, total US gas demand fell 2.9% from the previous week, led by a drop of 4.8% in residential and commercial use, with temperatures averaging about 1 degree Fahrenheit above normal, according to latest update from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

EIA also reported that working natural gas in underground storage increased to 3.843 trillion cubic feet as of October 19, an implied net injection of 67 billion cubic feet from the previous week, 4.1% over year-ago levels and 7% over the five-year average for that date.

The commodity has been witnessing some buying in Asian trades and the local futures might also edge up after nearing Rs 200 per mmbtu levels. The counter trades at Rs 203, down Rs 0.10 per mmbtu on the day. The open interest is up by a mild 2.2% on the day and some fresh buying could be seen in intraday moves. Prices have tested lows very much near to Rs 200 per mmtbu last week but the counter could not slip under the watershed mark.

Lead Updates

World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) said that lead market was in surplus by 17200 tonnes in January to August 2012, which follows a surplus of 2600 tonnes recorded in the whole of 2011. Total stocks at the end of August were 54600 tonnes lower than at the end of 2011. Lead mine production was 3.59 million tonnes, which was 23 percent above the total recorded for the first eight months of 2011. The jump in production of concentrates is largely due to abnormally low Chinese output in January and February 2011.

Refined production from both primary and secondary sources was 6.86 million tonnes. Global production rose by 1 per cent and demand was 56000 tonnes higher. Apparent consumption in China totalled 3.08 million tonnes of lead in January to August 2012 which was 109000 tonnes above the comparable period in 2011 and represented 45 percent of the global total. In August 2012, refined lead production was 942900 tonnes and consumption was 952000 tonnes.

MCX Commodity Report

CopperThe inventories of Copper in China continued to move higher as the prices of London Metal was chopped by profit booking and fears of lower GDP growth in the country. China inventories of Copper showed a sharp jump for the week ending 12 October 2012. Shanghai weekly inventory of Copper increased by 18967 metric tones or 11.7% to 181514 metric tonnes on 12 October 2012.This was much more on the expected lines as China is trying hard to increase its local currency versus the Dollar in an attempt to ease inflation in commodities and sourcing it at a cheaper rate.

Meanwhile, ICSG predicted a deficit in Copper for 2012 but said that the rising world supplies and ramp up of production will result in the metal turning into a surplus next year. A supply deficit of 400000 tonnes is estimated in Copper in 2012. International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the worries of global financial instability were higher due to ongoing European crisis. Higher borrowing costs and declining market confidence was worrisome. This created pressure on the metals during the week.

World Bank slashed its forecast for Asia Pacific economies to 7.2% from earlier forecast of 7.6%. China forecast has been cut to 7.7% this year compared to 8.2% in earlier forecast of May.

Non ferrous metals were trading on a weak note on expectations of dejection from Chinese trade data due to be released on Saturday. The inflation numbers from China will be released on Monday next week. Many investors still opted to stay on the sidelines before the Chinese trade data. China is a major consumer of metals in the world therefore caution before the trade data is quite high.

Today, Shanghai weekly inventory of Copper increased by 18967 metric tonnes or 11.7% to 181514 metric tonnes on 12 October 2012. London Copper inventories declined marginally by 3630 tonnes on Friday to 215900 metric tonnes. LME Copper three month forwards were trading at $ 8164 per tonne, as against $ 8212 per tonne on Thursday.